According to data released in February, total health spending for 2016 is projected to have reached nearly $3.4 trillion. National health expenditure growth is expected to average 5.6 percent annually over 2016-2025 and represent 19.9 percent of gross domestic product by 2025. And by 2025, it's projected that 47 percent of national health spending will be financed by federal, state, and local governments.
The data comes from the report, 2016-2025 Projections of National Health Expenditures Data, by Health Affairs and authored by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services' (CMS) Office of the Actuary (OACT). Projections for the report were constructed under current law and do not assume legislative changes that could occur over the projection period.
According to a press release from CMS, additional findings from the report include:
- Projections for total national health spending growth: 4.8 percent in 2016, 5.4 percent in 2017, and an average of 5.8 percent for 2018-2025.
- Medicare spending growth: projected to have been 5.0 percent in 2016 and to average 7.1 percent over the projection period.
- Private health insurance projections: Spending growth is expected to increase from 5.9 percent in 2016 to 6.5 percent in 2017.
- Medicaid: Spending growth is expected to increase from 3.7 percent in 2016 to an average of 5.7 percent for 2017-2025.
The OACT report, which also includes projections for medical price inflation, prescription drug spending, and insured share of the population, appears in the National Health Expenditure Data section of the CMS website, and an article about the study can be found on the Health Affairs website.